Vantage Point: Investing for growth  

Are emerging markets set for a rally?

  • To be able to explain how US monetary policy impacts emerging markets assets
  • To understand how the Chinese stimulus may impact emerging market assets
  • To discover how commodity prices impact emerging market assets
CPD
Approx.30min

Additionally, as physical commodities are priced in dollars, regardless of where they are sold, so a rise in the value of the dollar makes commodities more expensive, restricting demand and denting the economic performance of commodity exporting emerging markets. 

Seghal's view is that this shift in sentiment has made Latin American equities cheap, but that in additional to valuation, there is a catalyst. 

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He says many Latin American economies will now be able to cut interest rates in line with the Fed, and deliver a boost to the level of domestic demand in their own economies. 

Latin America is also the region that interests Fidelity portfolio manager Christopher Tennant, who says in addition to the benefits of commodity price falls, Latin American countries such as Mexico are beneficiaries of the geopolitical risk felt elsewhere, particularly as US companies flee China and wish to have their supply chains closer to home. 

He adds that wages are now often higher in China than Latin America.

Seghal adds that he has not had enough invested in India, mostly on valuation grounds, but will be tempted to increase his positions if valuations do recede from here. 

Schroders' Field says one of the reasons Indian equities have performed well recently, despite the wider travails of the emerging market indices, is that India as a relatively closed economy is much less vulnerable to dollar movements. 

Fadrique Balmaseda, an emerging markets investor at White Oak Capital, says: "Getting the macroeconomics right is as much about luck as judgement, so we tend not to try. But one thing we try to do is avoid countries where the politics is not great, because if you invest in those countries you tend to be in a position where even stock-picking becomes more about luck than skill." 

David Thorpe is senior investment editor at FT Adviser 

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. What does a rise in US rates cause to happen?

  2. What does Miller say is likely to boost Chinese equities?

  3. What does Seghal say could be misleading about the emerging market index?

  4. What does Seghal say could be the catalyst for emerging market outperformance from here?

  5. According to Miller, what proportion of Chinese people own their own home?

  6. Which of the below factors does Miller say is happening in the Chinese economy right now?

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You have successfully answered all the questions correctly, well done!

You should now know…

  • To be able to explain how US monetary policy impacts emerging markets assets
  • To understand how the Chinese stimulus may impact emerging market assets
  • To discover how commodity prices impact emerging market assets

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