“The Sahm rule says that the early stages of a recession are signalled when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate is half a percentage point or more above the lowest three-month moving average unemployment rate over the previous 12 months.
"Technically it hasn’t happened yet because the actual unemployment rate is 4.253 per cent, which has been rounded up to 4.3 per cent."
But as she believes rates will be cut, the unemployment data would be expected to improve.
Corrine Lord, investment specialist within the chief investment office at St James’s Place, expects volatility to continue to be a feature of markets as a result of interest rates being higher than many had become used to, but she still sees value in most equity markets.
David Thorpe is senior investment editor at FT Adviser
