If Trump is elected, uncertainty will likely spike again – hamstrung by a split Congress he would focus more on trade, where he does not need Congressional approval, just as he did after the midterms. This would support US equities, relative to the rest of the world. 

A Biden win is not a foregone conclusion but whatever the result, history would suggest we will not see huge market swings on the outcome.

Ed Smith is head of asset allocation research at Rathbones